Early Season Jays Award Predictions

With the home opener complete, it is now time for the "way too early" Blue Jays award predictions.

Through their first seven games the Blue Jays hold a record of 3-4. Surprisingly, the pitching has been very reliable thus far and the problem for the team has actually been their offense. With Springer having yet to play a game, many members of the team have found themselves struggling to get the bat off their shoulders. It would have been a disasterous start should the pitching not have performed like they [unexpectedly] have been.

A few games is far too small a sample size to judge the kind of year a single player is going to have, never-the-less an entire team. However, sometimes viewing and understanding the approaches these players take into each and every game can provide somewhat of an indication. Between the season start, spring training performances, and several other variables, it's now time to consider the 2021 Blue Jays regular season awards.

*Please note prior to reading, the silver slugger and gold glove for this article will only be given to the best hitter and the best fielder on the team. A maximum and minimum of one selection will be made.*

Rookie of The Year - TJ Zeuch

This category may come a little bit easier than others as few players qualify for this. Zeuch — the predicted winner of the Jays ROY — would beat out players such as Julian Merryweather, Alejandro Kirk, and other potential call ups during the season such as Alek Manoah, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Joshua Palacios, and others.

The Blue Jays rookie class may not be deep, but it is talented, so Zeuch as the selection might come as a surprise to many. Despite being the Blue Jays 2016 first round selection, and having thrown a no-hitter with the Buffalo Bisons in 2019, he has never truly been a very highly thought of prospect in the organization. Heading into the season Zeuch only ranks 28th on the organization top 30 prospect list according to MLB.com. Despite this, Zeuch looks to prove everyone wrong this season, and there is a good chance he follows through.

During his minor league career, Zeuch put up very impressive numbers at every level. In A+ he held a 3.47 ERA, which reduced to 3.08 in his AA career, and only rose to 3.69 in AAA, none of which were small sample sizes. Beyond his minor league numbers, Zeuch started the 2021 season with an impressive start against the offense heavy Yankees, pitching 4.0 shutout innings while allowing only three hits and a walk. His velocity and break looked good, and he really kept his composure during the game, impressing his team, and their fans. Should he put up another solid start in his next outing, he could very well find himself a permanent rotation spot for the year, and with this opportuity he will find himself the winner of the 2021 Blue Jays ROY award.

Reliever of The Year - Julian Merryweather

As of one month ago, Kirby Yates would've been the obvious choice here. However, with his season over before it started, the race for this award begins to get interesting. The debate here really boils down to three potential candidates: Julian Merryweather, Jordan Romano, and Ryan Borucki.

Jordan Romano was believed by many to become the team's new closer after hearing about the Yates injury. After an incredibly strong 2020 season, Romano was an obvious choice for the back of the bullpen, and seemed like the new front runner for the closer role following the injury. Yet, Montoyo and co. ended up turning to 29 year old rookie Julian Merryweather for save opportunities thus far, and this could likely be to the control issue Romano has found himself dealing with. In 2019 Romano put up stats that could have made every Jays fan sick to read. He sported a 7.63 ERA, which was a direct result of control issues. He finished the year with a 1.696 WHIP, and a walks per nine of 5.3. In 2020 these stats were improved significantly, which led to the success he found. His new WHIP was 0.866, and his BB/9 fell to 3.1. Now to start 2021, his WHIP is much closer to his 2019 figure, sitting at 1.500, and his BB/9 sits at a career worst 6.8. Alongside these stats, it has been clear to those watching that his control is just not there like it was in 2020, and it has become a major concern, thus removing him from the 2020 reliever of the year race.

Borucki — the Jays primary left handed option — was the next major contender for the award. After becoming a full time reliever in 2020, he has found tremendous success, primarily credited to an uptick in velocity thanks to his new reduced role in the bullpen. He finished last season with a 2.70 ERA, and started 2021 with an even stronger spring training. To start the regular season his control seems a little bit off, but characteristically he is a control based pitcher, so this shouldn't be a major concern like it is with Romano. Borucki is likely to have a very good year for the team, and the only reason he isn't taking home this hardware is because Julian Merryweather will be that much better.

Merryweather dazzled fans in his first couple outings of the season hitting speeds at fast as the upper 90s regularly, and averaging over 16 MPH difference between his fastball and changeup. His newfound approach found a high degree of success against the Yankees, and yet again in the Angels series. His new mix seems extremely effective, his pitches look electric, and he is a very composed pitcher out on the mound who is able to control himself in difficult situations. Better yet, he is a converted starter, and can potentially become a multi inning guy for the team, just like he demonstrated in the home opener against the Angels (where he threw 2.0 shutout innings). As a very inexperienced player he still has a lot to prove, but all the early signs are indicating a big year for the rookie, which is why he will claim the reliever of the year award come the season's end.

Gold Glove - Marcus Semien

The Blue Jays needed to improve on defence after a disasterous season in the field in 2020, and signing Marcus Semien was a huge step in the right direction. The shortstop-converted-second-baseman has already proven his worth for the team despite the limited sample size, flashing the leather on several occasions. Not only is he one of the most capable defenders on the team, but he is a smart fielder with veteran experience who isn't afraid to be vocal with his teammates.

Other than Semien, the other considered candidates for this award were Lourdes Gurriel, George Springer, and Cavan Biggio. Biggio is a major contributor to the club because he has a great glove, and is a very versatile player. However, it has become clear in the first few games of the season (and through spring training) that his arm isn't fit for third base. Should he have been stationed at second again, he would've had a fantastic chance to take home the hardware, but as a third baseman he was quickly removed from the conversation.

As for Gurriel — a 2020 gold glove nominee — and Springer — a center fielder who was highly sought after by the Jays because of his defensive abilities — both are realistic candidates for the award, and it becomes a very difficult decision from here. With Springer, he likely could've won had he stayed healthy. He is likely to miss nearly three weeks to start the season provided that he doesn't reaggrivate his injury again. By time he returns, there is a very realistic chance that he spends significant time in the DH role, or at the corner outfield positions for multiple weeks to help nurture the injury and ensure they don't put too much pressure on it until it is behind him for good. Considering this, it's difficult to give Springer the award. Perhaps with the same 2020 defensive team the Jays had it would've been a different story, but with Semien and Gurriel out on the field with good health, they have to be the front runners.

Gurriel and Semien was the most difficult decision as they are both healthy (thus far), and are plus defenders out on the field. Gurriel's arm is a major asset for the team, as is Semien's glove. Ultimately it came down to the experience and smarts that Semien has. He is in his ninth major league season compared to Gurriel's fourth. He is able to make quicker and smarter decisions, and that provides him with that little edge over Gurriel for this award. It may not be too noticable for viewers, but the little things here and there add up, and it's what makes the major difference for Semien to pull away the victor.

Silver Slugger - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The team silver slugger from the start quickly narrowed down to three candidates: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez and Springer are both past silver slugger award winners who have recieved MVP votes, and are undeniably great hitters. Despite this, Guerrero will still beat them out this season.

During the offseason Guerrero reportedly lost over 40 pounts, and the difference has been dramatic. Other than his physical appearance, many aspects of his abilities on the field have significantly changed. He is visibly faster, more flexible, and more mobile, which is huge for him defensively and offensively. With the bat he is now able to get around on the ball much easier. The weight loss allows for more tork, and faster bat speeds. Guerrero's potential is no secret after fans watched the 2019 home run derby. His exit velocity has always been incredible, which is simple proof that his potential exists. Now that he has lost so much weight and is finally in good shape, he can finally start capitalizing on that sky high potential.

In spring training Guerrero came out of the gates SWINGING. He hit for an incredible slash line of .421/.511/.737, and everything just came together for him. Beginning the season he has yet to cool off, hitting to yet another incredible slash line: .348/.483/.652. Sure this is a small sample size, but he seems bound for a breakout year.

Between Hernandez' concerning start, which has him flailing at nearly everything within a meter of the zone, and Springer's delayed start due to injury, the team silver slugger is Guerrero's to lose.

Cy Young - Hyun-Jin Ryu

There isn't much to be said here, this should come as an obvious. Ryu is the clear ace of an obviously week rotation and bullpen. He was incredible for the team in 2020, even finishing third in AL Cy Young voting. He is off to a good start this year, and looks ready to take home the team award once again. His age is a slight concern, but being honest, Ryu has quite a bit of room for decline before a second candidate comes into play.

Unless the Jays manage to pull off a trade for another big arm — which isn't likely — Ryu will be the undisputed Jays Cy Young winner.

MVP - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The team MVP award was between Guerrero Jr., Springer, and Ryu, all three of whom are likely all-stars this season. This is the creme of the crop, and these guys will be the biggest force for the team in 2021.

Hyun-Jin Ryu was fantastic in 2020, finishing with a 2.69 ERA while finishing top three in Cy Young voting for the second consecutive season. Despite his age (34), he is likely to have another strong season for the team, as his soft tossing/low velocity play style typically ages very well. To start the year he has provided two solid starts, leading to a 2.92 ERA while leading the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio at 12.00. The main thing to keep an eye on for Ryu this year is his home run rate, which is possibly the biggest contributor to his successful seasons the last few years. In 2019 and 2020 he averaged 0.8 HR/9. Through spring, and the start of the season his home run rate is inflated, so that could indicate a potential decline. Decline or not, Ryu will likely be a big factor for the team, just not as big as Vlad. A great ace is crutial for every contender, but only throwing once every five days (or six days as Ryu prefers) means you have to perform exceptionally well to be crowned an MVP, whether it be league MVP, or team MVP.

Springer likely would have been the front runner had it not been for his injury. Besides the missed games, the injury still causes issues as Springer will likely return to the team as a DH for injury prevention reasons, which limits his defensive impact (a big reason he was brought to Toronto). As well, most players had a chance to warm up and prepare for the season in spring training. As a result of the injury Springer will have gone well over a month with no live action, and it will likely take him some time to get back to normal. Springer will likely have a big year for the team, but it won't be enough to catch up to the production of Guerrero.

For Vlad, the offense has clearly come around. He has a real chance at a .280 batting average with a .350 OBP and 30+ homers. The main question for him is his defence, and if for some reason he is unable to finish the year as the Jays MVP, it will be the reason why. Resulting from his weight loss, he is much more mobile, athletic, and flexible. As well, he has gotten many more reps in at first base, a position which was new and unfamiliar for him last season. Logically, he should be much improved. As well, when selecting him as the team MVP it was assumed that his defense will be around league average this season. He has a fantastic arm and the skillset to make it work, but it's still a huge question mark. He has had several good plays to start the season, but already has a negative defensive runs saved (DRS), and is on pace for the worst DRS figure of his career. Should he become a study defender, he will likely be the obvious candidate for this award, but if he can't clean up his defense, this selection won't look like a great one any longer.