58 Runs Allowed in 5 Games. What Now?

Through most of the season, the Blue Jays fared surprisingly well on the pitching front. What initially looked like a terrible bullpen to start the year actually became one of the strongest areas on the team, with Kay and Borucki making smooth conversions from the rotation, Hatch and Romano breaking out, and under the radar pickups in Cole, Dolis, Bass, and Yamaguchi looking like steals. More recently however, the bullpen has been turned on it’s side, just like the rotation, and the team is starting to struggle heavily as a result.

Currently the Jays are in the midst of a five game skid, which has arguably been the worst run of the season for them. Over those five games, the Jays have allowed a staggering 58 runs, averaging 11.6 per game. Not only has the bullpen fallen apart, but the rotation has also found themselves pitching terribly. Despite injuries to Romano, Giles, Pearson, Thornton, and Shoemaker, the team still looked strong pitching wise, and nobody could have expected what the past few games have turned into.

Over the whole season, the Jays have had to make few adjustments pitching wise, as almost every piece has been sturdy. Over the past week however, Waguespack has been up and down multiple times, Kay; who has been dependable all year, has struggled so much recently to the point that he was optioned, and three pitchers made their season debut, two of which were major league debuts. All of these transactions and debuts means that the team is undoubtedly worried, and feels that they are beginning to run out of options. So, what happens now?

Before the team can figure out what to do, they have to find the stem of the problems. Before blaming the pitching, one must look at the defensive stats for the Blue Jays. Many of the Jays metrics point to the team being one of the worst defensive teams in the league. When considering defensive runs saved, the team stacks up terribly, with only Santiago Espinal, and Reese McGuire finding themselves in the positives. Literally every other position player to have played the field for Toronto this season is either at zero, or in the negatives. Panik, Grichuk, Fisher, and Jansen find themselves at the bottom of the team, as Jansen and Fisher each have -6 DRS, and Grichuk and Panik have -5. The defense has been terrible, statistically, and visually. Defense obviously isn’t the only issue, but the lack of solid defense should not go unnoticed. As proof, only 38 of the 58 runs from the past 5 games were earned runs. 38 runs is still a terrible number for such a short run, but the 20 run differential is an incredible difference.

Back to the pitching front, they’ve been terrible, and everyone knows it. The runs allowed are unforgivable, but it is important to first look at the breakdown. Over the five game stretch, starters pitched to a 9.00 ERA over 16 innings, openers pitched to an 18.00 ERA over 2 innings, relievers pitched to a 9.00 ERA over 19 innings, and position players pitched to a 9.00 ERA over 1 inning. From that, it shows that everyone has been terrible, but more concerns arise. Everyone knows the bullpen has been overused the entire season, and this continues to show the significance of this. The bullpen actually pitched 3 more innings then the starters did over these games, and yet openers and position players aren’t included in these innings. Clearly stamina and durability have been a concern for the team, and all the injuries aren’t helping. The returns of Nate Pearson, Matt Shoemaker, and Wilmer Font could be the difference in the coming weeks on whether or not the team makes the playoffs, because it seems durability and overuse has become a major problem.

Other than overuse, control problems have also been an issue for the team more recently. Borucki and Kay have been the most clear examples, and they are visibly struggling to find the zone, and both have significantly increased walk rates. However, what if there was another issue? Perhaps a catching issue?

Despite having a lot of young talent, the Jays catchers have been an issue, and not just offensively. A huge defensive metric for catchers is their ability to frame pitches on the outer parts of the zone. Currently the Blue Jays top ranked catcher for framing is Reese McGuire, who is the 45th ranked framing catcher in the league, which is poor for McGuire considering his past numbers. Despite this, he is currently assigned to the alternate player pool. Jansen finds himself ranked 48th, but as of recently he found himself sliding way down, ranking much higher for most of the season. An extra ball or strike in a count could make a huge difference for pitchers, especially against aggressive offensive teams like the Yankees and Phillies, who are filled with power bats.

When it comes to solving the Blue Jays issues for the remainder of the season, it’s a difficult scenario to be in. The team has struggled with defense all season long, and this is just arguably the worst stretch they’ve come across. The team could turn to pitching options with known control just to calm things down, even if they are worse all around pitchers. They’ve already sent down Anthony Kay, who has been dependable all season, so it shows that the team is willing to take these necessary measures to bandage the issue while figuring things out long term. Other potential solutions could include getting Jonathan Davis more time on the field, and bringing Reese McGuire back up to the team. Davis could be a big improvement in center, as he is a known defensive specialist, and because he would be taking over for Randal Grichuk (who could slide into the DH), as he has -5 defensive runs saved on the season. McGuire on the other hand is also a known defensive specialist, and despite some of his lowest career defensive numbers in 2020, he could still be an improvement over the struggling Jansen, who has -6 defensive runs saved while throwing out 21% of runners, and ranking 48th in the league in framing. McGuire holds 1 defensive run saved while throwing out 50% of runners, and holding the 45th spot in the league in framing. He could also be an offensive spark plug despite his poor offensive stats, as he is known as a streaky hitter, and really hasn’t been given much of an opportunity this year.

Overall, the Jays have some huge concerns to work over. Chances are that with some returns of injured players, and some pitching coach sessions with some of the youngsters, the team will be able to get back on track over time. In a playoff spot however, some bandage solutions could be necessary to help get the team back on track in the short term, and the team will have some important decisions to make over the next couple days.