Early Season Analysis

Despite only having played 13 games, the Blue Jays are already more than 20% of the way through the regular season with approximately three weeks until the trade deadline. Despite a small sample size, the front office has already begun looking at the team to find holes and areas of improvement going forward. As Buck Martinez said during a broadcast, “you usually need 60 games to figure out what type of team you have, but now 60 games is the whole season.” The time for an early season analysis has come.

The Blue Jays went 5-8 to start the year, which many have found underwhelming. With a 60 game season and expanded playoffs, the team was thought to have a serious chance at sneaking into a playoff spot, but that hasn’t looked like the case thus far. The team has started with early struggles, but there is still time to turn things around, as they have played a few games less then most teams after having their Philadelphia series postponed to a later date from the past weekend.

Despite a losing record, there have been many positives for the team, the most clear being pitching. The bullpen has looked excellent with the arrival of Anthony Bass and AJ Cole. Borucki, Kay, Waguespack, and Hatch have found extreme success converting to the bullpen as well. Jordan Romano has taken a huge step forward, and looks like a long term lock for the team. Despite the injury to Giles, and the inconsistencies of Dolis and Yamaguchi, the team actually has a bullpen that they can trust to keep games competitive. Yamaguchi seems to still be figuring things out after a slow start, but the talent is undeniable. Shohei Ohtani of the Angels was the major Japanese import from 2018, and many were worried after he severely struggled in his first ever spring training that year. He noticed many differences between leagues, such as mound height, and ball size, and once he got used to it and made the necessary adjustments, he looked like a star for the regular season (3.31 ERA, 11 K/9). The team hopes Yamaguchi can make the same kind of adjustments, and it remains entirely possible.

The Jays rotation has looked stable to start the year. Ryu, Shoemaker, Pearson, Roark, and possibly Anderson fill out the current rotation. Although Ryu has struggled early, his command was the major issue, and he bounced right back in his most recent start. The command was there, and he was putting pitches right on the corners where they were supposed to be. It was only one start, but it was a promising sign for the team’s new ace. Shoemaker has been sturdy other than one poor start, and still looks like a great piece of the rotation. Pearson has been excellent since his debut. His first start against the Nationals was phenomenal, punching out five over five innings of work with no runs allowed. He got roughed up in his second start a little bit, but it was a much better game then the box score would show. He had a great game, and his few mistakes really cost him. Other than a couple bad pitches, it was a good start. Moving on, Roark has been a concern for the team. After a great first start, he couldn’t get anything going in his last start against the Red Sox, walking five, and allowing four earned runs in only 3.0 innings of work. Despite a good track record, he struggled in 2019, and those struggles seem to be seeping into 2020. He isn’t on a good trajectory currently, but baseball is a strange sport, and he could always turn that around.

Pitching has been good, but offense is a different story. The team has really struggled to score runs, and generate any offense whatsoever. Entering Friday’s game (August 7th), the team was 1-11 with runners in scoring position. Also, 12 of the team’s 13 home runs to that point were solo home runs. As a team the Jays hold a .222 batting average (19th) with a .287 OBP (27th), and a .365 slugging (22nd). Despite the team ERA being 10th in the league, they’ve been unable to win games due to a lack of offense. The offense had been highlighted by Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. thus far. The four have been fantastic with getting one base, and hitting with power. Hernandez and Bichette have broken out, looking like stars this season, while Biggio, and Gurriel look above average. Although Biggio might not appear to be significant offensively with his .184 average, he has done an excellent job getting on base by way of base on balls. He has also found a power stroke, hitting three home runs on the year. Hernandez and Bichette have seriously helped the team, not only getting on base at a high rate, but also hitting for power. Prior to the postponed Phillies series, Hernandez led the league in home runs with four. He currently has eight extra base hits. Bichette has only hit two home runs, but has four doubles to accompany his .289 average.

The problems for the offense have come both from the bench, and the youth near the middle of the order. Tellez, Jansen, and Guerrero have struggled significantly, while Drury and Panik haven’t been much help off the bench. Many have been trying to figure out what has gone wrong for Guerrero this season, with most analysts finding that his ground ball rate has significantly increased. The Blue Jays coaching staff has said that it is his confidence, and they are confident that he will bounce back. It is tough to trust the team however, as they aren’t likely to admit to a problem they caused, and advanced stats prove a difference in his contact. Like Guerrero, Jansen and Tellez have also had their fair share of problems, but based on last season, it isn’t a big surprise. Both are late round draft picks who historically struggle with contact hitting, Jansen having only one breakout year, and Tellez being primarily a power hitter.

Typically, good pitching and a good start from half of the batting order should yield good production, yet the Jays are still struggling, and this seems to be coming from the coaching staff. Montoyo — a former member of the Rays coaching staff — seems to be making many questionable decisions not only in the eyes of fans, but many analysts, and even the in game commentators. In 2019 Montoyo had lots of experimentation with the team, but being a rookie manager in the midst of a rebuild, it was expected. Now in his second year in a phase where the team has playoff hopes, many were surprised to see he hadn’t changed his ways. Some of the most questioned decisions include Teoscar Hernandez hitting in the bottom of the order while Guerrero hits in the middle/top, sitting Teoscar Hernandez vs right handed pitchers, starting the struggling Jansen over McGuire vs right handers, and leaving starters in the game too long.

Teoscar Hernandez has caused a lot of controversy for the team. He is clearly having a breakout year, yet finds himself in the bottom of the order, or on the bench to start many games. Considering the value and production of the 27 year old outfielder, it is unusual not to see him hitting in the middle of the order as an everyday player. He has been a standout player for the team, and is still struggling to get the time he deserves on the field. Perhaps if put in a more important role (ie hitting 3 or 4), he will be able to give the offense the spark that it needs.

Reese McGuire doesn’t have the strongest history on offense based on his minor league numbers, but he has been an impact player every time he has gotten the call back to the big leagues. In late 2019, McGuire managed to outplay Jansen, earning himself a majority of the time behind the play to finish the season. It was already questionable to see Jansen getting the upper hand in the catching splits to start the year, never mind after his struggles. Both are elite defensive catchers, and it might be time to give them a switch, at least until Jansen gets himself back on track. So far in the season, McGuire has only started approximately 30% of the time, which is much lower than initially expected. Getting into games only twice a week could easily hinder the development of McGuire as well, as it will become much more difficult to get into a rhythm this season for the former first round pick.

On the pitching front, many of the starters have inflated stats, and losses due to having been left out on the mound too long. The perfect example to consider is opening day, where Ryu threw an excellent game against the Rays, but once he got to around 90 pitches, he was clearly slowing down and ended up allowing several runs and losing the game. It is understandable to leave a pitcher in when they are having a good game, but professional coaches should know when to take their pitchers out of the game when they suddenly can’t hit their spots anymore after having thrown 85+ pitches. This has gotten better as the season has progressed, but remains a concern considering the talent in the bullpen this year.

Overall the team is in a moderate spot despite the slow start, but there are clear issues that need to be worked out if they have any chance at the playoffs. They are most likely to finish the season with around 18-24 wins on the year unless some key players come alive on offense, and some managerial adjustments are made. Montoyo has a tendency to pick favourites based on specific traits, and getting over that could make for a huge impact on the rest of the season. Switching out under performing players is critical when there are reasonable young options waiting for their opportunity, and he needs to figure out what to do with a team so rich with talent. There are many options for him, and his hands certainly aren’t tied, so it will be interesting to see what kinds of changes are made going forward.