Trade Target: Mike Foltynewicz

After six seasons with the Atlanta Braves, 2018 all-star Mike Foltynewicz was designated for assignment by the organization. Despite his recent all-star game appearance, he struggled in 2019, and showed many concerning signs heading into the 2020 season leading to this decision. He made one start in 2020 before being cut loose by the team on the 28th.

The 28 year old starter frequently known as “Folty” has been long known for his velocity. He is a former first round pick of the Houston Astros, who also became his debut team in 2014. He would later make his Braves debut in 2015, where he would start 15 games for the team in 18 appearances, locking himself into a future rotation role. From 2016 to 2019 he would make 93 appearances, 92 of which would be starts.

During his time with the Braves, Foltynewicz pitched to a 4.30 ERA over 122 games. His worst season came in his first year with the Braves (2015), where he finished with a disastrous 5.71 ERA over 18 games (15 starts). His best year came in 2018, where he would make his lone all-star appearance while yielding Cy Young votes (8th place finish). He led the league in complete games, and shutouts, and finished with career bests in ERA, wins, games pitched, stars made, innings, strikeouts, FIP, WHIP, HR/9, and K/9. He finished 5th place in the NL ERA leaderboards, leading to 13 wins on the year.

It was widely known around the entire league that Foltynewicz had high potential, especially considering his velocity, which averaged just over 96 MPH, and has been recorded as high as 103 MPH. His breakout season in 2018 came as no surprise despite following four straight years with an ERA above 4.30. He looked like the ever so badly needed ace for the Braves, and would pave the way for the team to win the division title. He looked like a staple for years to come, until his 2019, where he would fall back to his early career ways.

Despite coming off an all-star year, Foltynewicz seriously struggled in 2019, finishing the year with a 4.54 ERA after starting 21 games. He began the year on the IL, missing the first 25 games after getting surgery to remove a bone spur in his pitching elbow. In his first start back, he was hit around badly, and this would become an unfortunate trend for him, never truly getting back to form. After his second start, he had already allowed 9 runs, which is when the Braves began to question whether they were really getting their ace back.

Fast forward to 2020. Foltynewicz makes one start for Atlanta, and immediately gets cut with no minor league options remaining. In his lone start he would allow 6 runs over 3.1 innings pitched, allowing 3 home runs, and finishing with more walks then strikeout (4 to 3). The most significant reason for him being let go (according to manager Brian Snitker) was his extreme dip in velocity, which he had been known for his entire career. After averaging over 96 MPH on his fastball in 2019, he only averaged 89 MPH in his first start, a big concern for the velocity first pitcher. Now with his stock lower than ever, it’s time for Toronto to swoop in and pick him up.

Yes his stock is low, but other than that why would the Blue Jays want a pitcher struggling so much in a season where they have a serious chance at the playoffs? Two reasons: (1) His massive upside potential, and (2) the coaching staff being a perfect fit to realign his career.

Foltynewicz has found success primarily because of two main bread and butter pitches in the past, which both would become an issue in the future. First, his high velocity fastball. After an elbow injury, Folty struggled to regain his velocity, averaging out significantly slower to start the 2020 year. This could’ve been the primary reason for the Braves letting him go. Although it should also be a concern to Toronto, it shouldn’t be too difficult to build it back up. He may not return to averaging 96 and topping out at 103, but a 94 average topping out at 98 would be a great possibility for the former all-star. The Blue Jays have found success with finding arm strength in pitchers, and controlling high velocity, which could be extremely ideal in reworking the 29 year old vet. Just look at the velocity improvements in Ryan Borucki (up 3 MPH from 2019), Nate Pearson (up 8 MPH from 2017), and several others in the last 8 years since Pete Walker was announced as the new pitching coach.

A second reason why he is a great project for the team is his secondary pitch, the slider. After working on the pitch for years, he perfected it in his 2018 all-star season. However, his elbow problems in 2019 came partially as a result of his overthrown slider, and he would end up shying away from it for the rest of the year. Fortunately for him, the Jays are a fantastic fit for pitchers using a slider as their two pitch. Giles is practically a two pitch pitcher, using almost exclusively this combo. Giles struggled for years with the Astros, and shortly after becoming a Jay, his career turned around and he became an elite closer. Another pitcher that closely resembles this is the carefully watched over rookie, Nate Pearson. Ryan Borucki has even taken a huge step forward in 2020, improving his overall velocity, and tightening his slider, which has become extremely effective in game. With the organization having so much success, and putting so much focus on the fastball-slider high velocity combo, Foltynewicz could be a fantastic candidate to bounce back.

When it comes to making a deal with the Braves, it is clear that they are looking for a pitcher who can help them win now. The outfield was a concern until Nick Markakis opted back into the season on the 29th. Therefore, pitching has become the sole focus for Atlanta. Between Felix Hernandez opting out due to COVID concerns, Cole Hamels starting the season on the 45 day IL, and their Canadian ace Mike Soroka tearing his achilles, the team is desperately in need of pitching help for the 2020 season. This is where Toronto might be able to steal Foltynewicz.

Toronto has had strong pitching performances to say the least in 2020. Between their ace in Ryu, Tanner Roark, Nate Pearson (who is up slightly earlier than expected), Trent Thornton, and Matt Shoemaker, they have a solid five man rotation. They also have Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, Ryan Borucki, and Jacob Waguespack who have experience in starting roles, and have found success out of the bullpen in 2020. Of all the names on that list, there is one being left out. Chase Anderson.

Chase Anderson started the year on the IL for Toronto, having yet to debut for the team. He was acquired via trade from the Brewers over the off season, and was expected to have a significant role in the rotation in the 2020 season. However, after the success that the team has seen from their starters, it will be a struggle to fit him back into the rotation. In a sense, there really isn’t a need for him on the team. There is a team that does need him though, and that team is Atlanta.

Anderson is a 32 year old six year veteran in the league who owns a career 3.94 ERA. In 2019 he pitched to a sturdy 4.21 ERA in 32 games (27 starts). His contract expires at the end of 2020, but he has a team option for 2021, and is a fairly inexpensive option, making just under $7 million per year. Considering his age, and Toronto’s rotation success, he isn’t a long term fit, rather being more of a short term solution which is no longer needed. Atlanta however is in desperate need for a short term solution, which is why it would be ideal to attempt to flip Anderson for Foltynewicz.

Foltynewicz cleared waivers and was reassigned to minor league camp on July 30th. The Braves have made it clear that there is no real spot for him, and as a contending team, they don’t have the ability to experiment with him to put his career back on track. Toronto might be a contender for the playoffs, but not for a title like the Braves, giving them a little more flexibility to polish off a project. If an Anderson-Foltynewicz trade were to go through, it would be likely that Foltynewicz would join the Jays as a member of the bullpen, where Pete Walker would work with him to get that fastball-slider combo back to where it was two years ago. By the end of the year, he might even be ready to take over a rotation spot again.

There is clear benefit for both teams in this trade. The Braves get that short term solution that they need, and the Blue Jays get a project who is a better fit for the team. Also he might seem ways away from his all-star self, Foltynewicz has proven he has potential, and being only 28 years old he is a much better long term fit for the team than Anderson. The Jays have a great opportunity to acquire a future ace, who could very easily blossom in the Jays system. It is a risk the team should be willing to take, as the team is giving up a player that they really don’t need. Folty is a project, but so is the entire team at this point in time. It’s a great fit for a team with great potential.