Upside Comparisons: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

In 2019, the highly anticipated top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. debuted with Toronto. Arguably the most hyped up prospect in Jays history, fans found disappointment after a rookie season in which he only placed sixth in rookie of the year voting. However, his rookie year was more impressive than many seem to think, and between his minor league and MLB experience, he has shown the potential to be something special.

Through the minors, Guerrero exploded at AA, where he maintained an incredible .402 batting average through 61 games (234 ABs). He would later become the first prospect in league history to receive an 80 hitting grade on the scouting scale, while also showing flashes of power. He became known as the future saviour of the franchise, even increasing ticket sales significantly upon his arrival.

In his age 20 rookie season, he finished with a .272 average and a .339 OBP. He also hit 15 home runs and 26 doubles while driving in 69 RBI for a .433 slugging (down from .700 in AAA prior to his demotion). These numbers are not super star level, but for a 20 year old in his rookie season, it shows promise. Enough promise to draw a comparison to David Ortiz.

With Guerrero moving to first, while considering his contact/power blend, and his poor fielding and speed, it’s difficult to keep Ortiz's name out of his upside comparison projections. Ortiz was a monster in the MLB, retiring with 10 all-star appearances, 7 silver sluggers, and 541 career home runs (including a career high and league leading 54 in 2006). Once joining Boston, he would average 34.5 home runs a year with a .286 average. With such a long/successful career, it could be insulting to compare a 20 year old to him. So, comparing his final year in 2016 will do instead.

In 2016 Ortiz hit .315 with 38 home runs while leading in doubles (48), RBI (127), slugging (0.620), and OPS (1.021). Those stats look very different from Guerrero, but there are too many similarities in play style to ignore this. Ortiz repeatedly found himself competing in the home run derby, winning in 2010. Looking at them in the home run derby, the similarities between their leveling, smoothness, quick hands, and pull side power is incredible.

In 2016, Ortiz hit primarily off the fastball, whiffing 16.2% of the time, compared to 26.1% on breaking pitches, and 24.1% on offspeed. Guerrero whiffed even less on fastballs, 13.8% of the time, while his other pitches were also significantly higher rates. The two share very similar numbers in zone contact %, and chase %, and have strong contact making ability, and good plate vision. What is the ultimate difference?

The big difference is the barrel percentage. Guerrero hit off the barrel only 7.7% of the time, putting him in the 47th percentile, as well as the 46th percentile for hard hit percentage. Ortiz (2016) put up a barrel percentage of 13.1%, putting him in the 97th percentile, as well as the 94th percentile for hard hit percentage. The main problem for Guerrero comes in his ability to hit breaking pitches. The difference between Ortiz fastball whiff % to his breaking whiff % is 9.9%. For Guerrero, that number shoots up to 24.3%, indicating he struggles to hit breaking balls. This ability comes with experience, and by gaining the ability to hit the breaking pitch, he will barrel up everything more often, leading to the type of contact we saw in the minor leagues, as well as the pop from the home run derby. This is why Ortiz is a fantastic comparison for the potential upside of Guerrero.