Make or Break: Travis Shaw

Travis Shaw (30) looked like a future star breaking into the league with the Red Sox and Brewers after establishing himself as a power bat who can play around the diamond, having taken the field at first, second, third, and even left field. He looked like a core piece of the Brewers offense, right behind 2018 MVP Christian Yelich, and with only a couple years until he reached the end of his service time, he was in for a big extension. At least that’s how things were supposed to go.

After being considered a staple in the Brewers lineup, a terrible 2019 brought significant change to Shaw’s career. Instead of being the Brewers four hitter while on a big contract, he is fighting for a spot in the Jays starting lineup on a one year $4 million contract. In his career worst year, he finished with a .157 average (.104 with runners in scoring position) alongside 7 home runs and 16 RBI through 230 at bats. The obvious issue was his increased strikeout rate, which was at career high. 38.7% of Shaw’s 2019 at bats ended with a third strike, significantly up from his previous career high of 27.7%.

The interesting thing about Shaw in 2019 is that his exit velocity, sweet spot percentage, and hard hit percentage were around his career averages. Also, despite the significantly increased strikeout rate, Shaw actually chased pitches out of the zone 25.5% of the time, the second best rate of his career, while also maintaining a career high walk rate. This indicates his plate vision actually improved, despite so many strikeouts. So, where is the issue stemming from? A changed swing.

There are three main “advanced stats” that jump out for Shaw in 2019. These are his launch angle, fastball whiff percentage, and zone contact percentage. The biggest concern would be the much talked about launch angle. In the past, Shaw maintained a launch angle between 14.6 and 16.6. In 2019 though, his launch angle increased to 24.4, a huge change. This suggests he got under the ball, struggling to hit flat line drives, turning typical hits into fly ball outs. The next concern for Shaw is his fastball whiff rate. Many greats have said it is important to hit off the fastball, and adjust to anything else. In his career, Shaw has gotten his whiff rate as low as 16.5%, hitting fastballs nearly every time he swung at them. 2019 was a different story however, whiffing on 29.2%. Struggling to hit the fastball is a serious concern for anyone, proving Shaw’s swing was seriously problematic. Lastly, his zone contact. Each year since his rookie year, Shaw’s zone contact percentage has increased, with a career low of 83.4% from his rookie year. 2019 marked his first season below 80%, as he sat at 75.5%. He struggled to capitalize on mistakes, and to generally make contact throughout the 2019 season, and these three stats prove it.

Shaw blamed adjustments to his swing for his dreadful 2019. When asked about his career worst season, Shaw said “Last year was not the player that I am, that’s not going to be the player I am in the future”. Ultimately the challenge for Shaw will be to get his swing back to where it was. Obviously the adjustments got the worst of him, but if he can return to his previous 2017-18 form, he can be a big threat once again. However, it's a big if, and if he can’t turn things around, the rest of his career might come into question, making this season his make or break year.