Upside Comparisons: Cavan Biggio

Cavan Biggio was called up to the Blue Jays on May 24, 2019, and over the course of the season the lefty slashed .234/.364/.429, and hit 16 home runs across 430 plate appearances. In the field, he played primarily at second base, also appearing at both corner-outfield spots, first base, and the DH role in four games.

In 2019 Biggio proved that something he could do exceptionally well at the Major League level was drawing ball four. His 16.5% walk rate was the third best among all non-pitching rookies, and was the best among rookies with more than 17 plate appearances. This walk rate also put him fourth among all MLBers with more than 400 PAs. The last season wasn’t an exception, as his results were consistent with his 15.3% career BB% rate in the Minor Leagues. In an age where teams and fans have learned to value a walk much more than in the past, Biggio possesses an impressive ability to get on base.

While Biggio may never contend for the batting title — his batting average was 16 points below the Major League average — his value with the bat is boosted by the fact that he can hit for power. His isolated power, or ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average), was 14 points above the qualifying average, despite Biggio only recording 86% of the plate appearances needed to have qualified. As a second baseman who excels at drawing walks, and has significant pop in his bat, an ideal player comparison for Biggio’s future potential is Brian Dozier.

Dozier — a current Padre — debuted with the Twins in 2012 and played there until a 2018 trade to the Dodgers. He would later win a championship with the Nationals in 2019. With the Twins, he was an All-Star in 2015, and has received MVP votes in three separate seasons. He was largely considered Minnesota’s best player, and led the team in many offensive statistics. Promisingly for the Jays, Biggio’s rookie season, and his Minor League numbers — in particular his OPS and his HR/PA rate — are very similar to Dozier’s career statistics.

Although Dozier hits from a different side of the plate, it’s clear that the two possess a very similar set of skills. Comparing Biggio’s 2019 to Dozier’s career, the numbers are very similar, with the exception that Biggio’s walk rate is an improvement over Dozier’s, and Dozier strikes out at a lower rate. This is reflected in the fact that Biggio has an edge in OBP, whereas Dozier’s edge is in categories that don’t count walks, and still their ISO is just 2 points apart.

In 2016, Dozier experienced a power surge that appeared to come out of nowhere, as his SLG was over 100 points higher than his career mark as a result of 42 homers, 14 more than his previous season. This improvement led Dozier to be the 10th most valuable batter in the MLB by fWAR, and there is hope that a similar season is on the horizon for Cavan Biggio, as their similar ability to recognize pitches bodes well for a possible discovery of a power stroke for the young Blue Jay.

Considering Dozier and Biggio, the similarities in their ability to get on base via the walk, and their ability to hit for extra bases is why Dozier’s career is a solid representation of what Biggio might look like for the Jays in the future. Offense like Dozier would be a huge positive for the Jays, and could ensure he remains a part of the core for the team for years to come.