Make or Break: Sam Gaviglio

The Blue Jays acquired reliever Sam Gavilio off waivers from the Royals during the 2017-2018 offseason, and he was expected to pitch either in long relief, or in the minors as depth. Gaviglio ended up taking a much bigger role with the team in 2018, making 24 starts on the year over 26 total games. He threw 123.2 innings, and remained with the team through 2019 as a full time reliever. However, just because he stuck with the team this long, doesn’t mean he will continue to do so.

Despite being one of the most used relievers on the team in 2019, and one of the most used starters on the team in 2018, there are no guarantees for Gaviglio going into the future. Although he gets a lot of time on the field, his numbers haven’t been all that impressive, accumulating a 5.01 ERA in his time with Toronto. Although most of his bad numbers come from his time as a starter, his time in the bullpen didn’t do much to increase his stock either.

Gaviglio was a favourite for the Jays coaching coming out of the pen in 2019, appearing in 52 games over the course of the year. After an incredibly strong spring, he came into the season looking like a solid late inning option for the team. He was unable to carry that kind of success into the season, finishing with an ERA of 4.61, which isn’t awful, but certainly doesn’t stand out. After another below average season, Gaviglio no longer remains a lock in the Jays bullpen, and this season might be his final chance to prove himself worthy of remaining with the team past 2020 and into their contending years.

It is as close to certain as it gets that Gaviglio will get the chance he needs to prove himself in 2020. With the only true bullpen “lock” being Giles and possibly Brandon Bass, it is extremely likely he finds his way into the bullpen to start the year simply due to the lack of better options. The concern isn’t if he will get the opportunity, but rather what can he do with it. After a dreadful year in the rotation in 2018, it seems his only beneficial use is out of the bullpen, and unless he can put up better numbers, he could be a non-tender candidate at the end of the year.

The biggest problem for the 30 year old reliever is the amount of hits he allows. Despite a career low in 2019, he still allowed 8.0 H/9, and an even worse 10.2 H/9 in 2018. As a result, he frequently finds himself with runners on, and having to get out of jams. He has shown significant improvement since his rookie year in K/9, BB/9, and his K/BB ratio, which shows promise, but his H/9 have always remained a concern, and is critical to him finding the kind of success he needs to rejuvenate his career. Normally when a pitcher's K/BB ratio improves significantly, it indicates improved control, which should translate over to his ability to limit hits as well. With a still concerning H/9, it could mean that he simply lacks the proper tools, and doesn’t have the potential to significantly improve (ie. velocity, break, etc.). It is a significant step he will have to take, but it will be the difference between another year or two in the league, versus three to five more years, and it could also decide whether or not he remains in Toronto past 2020.