Breakout Candidates: Reese McGuire

Reese McGuire ⁠—a former first round pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates— is one of two young catchers in Toronto’s talented catching tandem. The 25 year old is most well known as an elite defender with a below average bat, but his big league offensive numbers have been showing otherwise.

McGuire was acquired alongside Harold Ramirez (now a Marlin) and Francisco Liriano (now a Philly) in exchange for longtime Jay Drew Hutchison in 2016. McGuire would debut in 2018 with the club, making a difference right from the get go. Despite a .239 career average in AAA, McGuire has shown extreme success each time he gets a chance in the big leagues with a career .297 average and 7 home runs in 128 at bats, accumulating a 1.2 career WAR. In 2018 when McGuire was called up, he burst onto the scene in his 33 at bats, although sudden offensive bursts are nothing abnormal for him, and this was largely considered one of those streaks. This was until he was recalled in 2019 after an injury to Luke Maile, and yet again showed a high degree of success offensively, this time through 104 at bats. Although he has yet to play a full season with the team, 150 at bats is typically when breakouts are no longer considered a fluke, which could be a sign of good things to come for the young backstop.

With all of McGuire’s offensive success, his defensive abilities cannot be overlooked. He has been known for years as a fantastic game caller with a strong blocking ability, an incredible arm, and high defensive IQ. Despite rocky defense in 2018, he rebounded in 2019 finishing the year with 3 defensive runs saved and a .992 fielding percentage over 236.1 innings. For a comparison, Danny Jansen, —a gold glove finalist— finished with 12 DRS over 852.2 innings, which is equivalent to 11 DRS for McGuire in the same sample size. McGuire’s all around defensive talent simply lacks in one area: throwing accuracy. For a catcher with such a strong arm, throwing out a league average 26% is an area that should be improved,and can elevate his game to a new level.

Between McGuire’s breakout offense, and his incredible defense, he has an opportunity to be a huge difference maker for the team in 2020. Being just 25 years old with his rookie status intact, his future with the team looks promising as his time in the league continues. If he manages to improve his throwing accuracy, and shortens his swing, he could become an all-star catcher. In 2020 McGuire is expected to play in a platoon with his young talented counterpart Danny Jansen. Although most project Jansen to get the upper hand in the 60-40 play split, McGuire managed to significantly out play Jansen in 2020, and could win the extra time with a strong spring training if he hasn’t already with his performance last season. The lone significant concern for this season was supposed to be his ability to stay strong mentally after an incident over the offseason, but the team has chosen to overlook it, and it might not be of significance as the season will likely begin with empty stadiums.

Many factors pull together to indicate that McGuire has serious talent and potential, making him a breakout candidate. A strong 2020 could win him the starting job permanently as the young star in the making could be a large piece in the Toronto core for years to come. This will be a critical season for him, and the team as their contention window begins to open.