Breakout Candidates: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero Jr. might just be the most well known Blue Jay in the major leagues, despite having less than one year of service time. The 2019 rookie sensation came into the league with sky high expectations after being promoted as one of the games top prospects, and frequently being deemed the “franchise saviour”. Upon his arrival to Toronto, fans were more than excited, bringing the well known buzz back to Rogers Centre. This only lasted a few games as fans quickly grew disappointed with what they saw: Raw offensive talent with limited defensive ability. Some even went as far as to write off Guerrero as a bust this early on, but is that really the case for Toronto’s former prized prospect?

To begin the 2019 season, fans were upset to find Guerrero in AAA Buffalo to start the year with the front office only having said that his defense was not yet ready for the majors. With -9 defensive runs saved and a range factor per game of 2.58, he found himself at the bottom of the league from a defensive standpoint. However, the improvement by the end of the year was clear, and despite not yet being an average level fielder, he made big strides. On the offensive end most fans remained disappointed yet again, but he didn’t play as poorly as most remember.

Consider these numbers: .272/.339/.443 slash line (AVG, OBP, Slugging) with 15 home runs, 26 doubles, and a 1.98 K/BB ratio in 464 at bats. Compare those numbers to these: .275/.369/.448 slash line with 26 home runs, 31 doubles and a 2.58 K/BB ratio in 559 at bats. The ratios and percentages look extremely similar. The home runs and doubles look different, but player B had almost 100 more at bats. In a 600 at bat season with numbers rounded up, player A hits 20 home runs and 35 doubles, combining to 55, while player B hits 28 home runs and 34 doubles. Player A hits slightly less home runs, but holds a much better K/BB ratio, while almost every other figure is extremely similar. Player A is Guerrero Jr., and player B is Kris Bryant in 2015, his rookie season where he won rookie of the year. The following year (2016), Bryant significantly improved his plate vision, cutting down his strikeouts, improving his home run hitting, and contact hitting. He finished the year as the NL MVP while leading the Cubs to their first world series victory in over 100 years.

Will Guerrero win the 2020 MVP while leading Toronto to a world series championship? Not likely? Will Guerrero figure out how to succeed in the MLB after his first taste in the league in his age 20 season? Quite possibly. Expectations of Guerrero were so high, that despite having a solid year for a rookie, he didn’t fulfill expectations. He showed off his power in the home run derby in 2019, showcased his ability to potentially be a considerable defensive option with some incredibly strong throws to first, and proved his skill to handle the bat all through the minors with a ridiculous .402 average in his AA career, and a .343 average in his AAA career. The majors are a big adjustment for anyone, nevermind a 20 year old. He is competing with the best in the world, and once he gets some time to figure this out, he has a serious chance at being one of the league's best. This is why he is one of Toronto’s potential breakout players.