Time for an Outfield Shakeup

With the Blue Jays beginning to inch closer to a playoff team, it has become time for the team to start filling holes on the roster. GM Ross Atkins and co attempted to chip away at the rotation issues with the signing of Tanner Roark, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Shun Yamaguchi, and Chase Anderson, while also adding bullpen arms in Anthony Bass and Rafael Dolis. Although these solutions aren't long term, or significant players, they are good short term problem solvers. However, one large hole still exists in the team, and this is the outfield.

The Blue Jays have struggled with their outfield for years, even during their 2015 and 2016 playoff runs. Between the below average hitting and unproven (at the time) Kevin Pillar, the strike out machine of Michael Saunders, or the one season wonder of Ben Revere, the Blue Jays never truly had their outfield anchored. Headed into the better years of the rebuild, the team is in the same spot yet again. Although there are many young players competing for the role, there is extreme uncertainty that needs to be addressed.

Headed into the 2020 season, the Blue Jays have many young outfielders on the 40 man roster. This list includes Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Anthony Alford, Jonathan Davis, Teoscar Hernandez, Billy McKinney, Derek Fisher, and the experienced vet, Randal Grichuk. Alongside these players, they also have several outfield prospects waiting in the wings, such as Joshua Palacios and Griffin Conine. Overtime, a couple of these players will likely take that leap forward, but there are two issues with that plan. First of all, the Jays are looking to compete within a year time, and these guys might very well need more than that. Second, these players won't have the opportunity that they need with Toronto. As all baseball fans know, there are only three outfield spots, and maybe one bench spot that gets considerable bench time. Gurriel and Grichuk are locks in the outfield, leaving only one starting spot, and one significant bench spot to split between the remaining 5 players. Without an everyday opportunity at the major league level, these players won't get the opportunity that they need to break out, leaving Toronto in a troubling dilemma, not knowing who to keep on the team going forward.

The 2020 outfield currently looks to feature Gurriel, Grichuk, and Hernandez, but that could easily change with such uncertainty. After Gurriel's found success in the outfield in 2019, he looks to be the only reliable long term solution for the team. Grichuk's inconsistency has caused issues for the team (especially defensively), but due to his large contract, and the pride the front office took in completing it, he seems like a long term option, despite not being a very favorable future option.

One way of acquiring talent that Atkins is no stranger to would be through trade, which leads for a great outfield opportunity. There are two potential outfielders that would be ideal fits for Toronto in the short term, that also leave room for opportunity in the long run. These two players are Ender Inciarte of the Atlanta Braves, and Dee Gordon of the Seattle Mariners.

Inciarte is a 29 year old left handed outfielder. He is a proven defender with three gold gloves to his name (2016-2018), and also has an all-star appearance under his belt (2017). His is a solid contact hitter who is also a speed threat on the base paths, as proven in 2018 with his career high 28 stolen bases. After an off year in 2019, as well as great seasons from youngsters Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley, plus the signing of Marcell Ozuna, the Braves are rumored to have made Inciarte available on the trade market. Contract wise, Inciarte is under control for the next three years, being under contract for 2020 and 2021 with a team option for 2022. He is two years in on his five year deal, and will make an average of $6.7 million per year over the next three years, which is team friendly. He looks like a great fit for the Jays in a potential lead off guy, two hitter, or even the nine hitter (second lead off man), and at the cheap price he is at after his sub par 2019, he could be well worth taking a look at.

Dee Gordon is a left handed hitting infielder and outfielder who will be 32 years old this season. Gordon has become a very accomplished player over his nine year major league career, earning 2 all-star appearances, a gold glove, a silver slugger, and a batting title. Gordon was traded to Seattle for pennies on the dollar after being caught for PEDs two years prior, as was converted to the outfield in Seattle's final year of playoff contention. Despite a decline after returning from PEDs, Gordon remains an incredible power threat, while still known as a reliable contact hitter with an above average glove. In 2019, Gordon finished the year with a .275 average alongside 22 stolen bases while only playing in 117 games. In 2016 — Gordon's first year after his suspension — he hit for a .308 average with a league leading 60 stolen bases (4 shy of his career high). Clearly Gordon is a proven player that could be a solid addition to any lineup. The key for the Jays in a potential trade would be that Gordon is under control for two more years, being under contract in 2020, with a team option in 2021, in case he under performs. Gordon will be making approximately $9 million on average during those final two years.

Both outfielders are good options for Toronto, as not only are they good fits with veteran experience, but they are both available on the trade market, and they are under contract. The Jays could pursue these players at two separate times, which would arguably be the best for them. Inciarte would be best acquired prior to the seasons start, as a comeback year could increase his value, possibly even removing him from the trade market all together. Gordon however should be acquired closer to the trade deadline. Even if he has a value increasing year, the Mariners just want his salary off the books, and they really don't need him on the roster. At this point, he is just blocking the way for their younger players, just like Grichuk for Toronto right now. Leaving a Gordon trade for the deadline is also beneficial for Toronto, as they give some of their young players an opportunity to prove themselves and take that spot before pulling the trigger on the deal.

Why are these players such good fits for Toronto? Why are they such important targets? First, both are potential all-star caliber players because of their contact, their speed, and their fielding, which is something Toronto struggles with severely. In team batting average in 2019, Toronto finished dead last among all major league teams, placing 30th with a .236 team average. Toronto also struggled on the base paths, finishing 26th in the league in stolen bases, averaging 0.31 stolen bases per game. Although fielding was better for the Jays, they still finish around the middle of the league, finishing 16th in team errors. Not only will Inciarte and Gordon aid the team in filling positional holes, but they also deliver in areas that the team struggles with the most. These are exactly the type of players that the team needs to give the lineup that missing spark.

The next reason these players are so perfect for the team is their contracts. Neither are on huge deals, and are actually pretty team friendly. The two combined will cost on average $15.7 million a year, they are both under control for multiple years, and if they don't work out with their potential new teams, Gordon has a team option in his second year, and Inciarte in his third. It is a low risk acquisition for the team, and there is high benefit. Inciarte is young enough to be a part of the long term plans. Gordon is going to be 32 this season; which could be a concern, however his team option and short commitment eliminates that concern. If there is a long term option in the free agent market or the trade market, it is easy to simply decline the team option and either let him go, or resign him for cheaper. Inciarte is a long term option, and Gordon is a perfect bridge option making both trades ideal.

Ok, the trades are ideal, but what will it take to make them happen? First off, Ender Inciarte. This deal should be easy to complete, as Alex Anthopoulos (former Blue Jays GM) is the GM of the Atlanta Braves. On numerous occasions he has brought former Jays from his teams aboard being that he is familiar, and knows these guys inside and out. Examples of former Jays that he has brought to Atlanta include Josh Donaldon, Ezequiel Carerra, Jose Bautista, Adeiny Hechavarría, Travis d'Arnaud, and several others on minor league deals. There is little doubt that Anthopolous wouldn't want to complete a trade with Toronto, as it is likely that there were some players he really liked, such as Anthony Alford.

When it comes to the trade, there are several names that could be tosses around, but the most likely include C Max Pentecost, C Riley Adams, 3B/SS Kevin Smith, OF Anthony Alford, and RP Jordan Romano. All five are players who were acquired during Anthopoulos' time as GM, and are likely players he would find favorable, especially Romano, who is Canadian born. Anthopoulos is Canadian, and during his time with Toronto he frequently showed his preference/bias towards Canadian players (ie. Russell Martin, Michael Saunders, Dalton Pompey, Mark Teahen, Andrew Albers, Jeff Francis, etc.), even setting the record in 2015 for most Canadian players on an opening day roster.

The Braves primary needs are catching, third base, and bullpen improvements. Despite the Jays bullpen issues, it seems that Romano is a likely piece to make this deal work. Adding in former fourth round pick Kevin Smith (#13 rated organizational prospect in 2019), as well as Riley Adams (#27 rated organizational prospect) would likely seal the deal here. In this deal, the Braves are getting one future solution for every problem, and this is a load the Jays are likely willing to give up. GM Anthopoulos highly values his scouting department, so being that all of these prospects were acquired by him and his team is a big part of this trade. The three to one ratio, along with the positional needs, and the well rated prospects likely result in a win-win trade, leaving both teams happy.

Now on to Dee Gordon. This is going to be a much easier trade for Toronto, and Gordon has a much lower value assigned to him, and he is someone the Mariners are pushing to trade, rather than just listening to offers like the Braves with Inciarte. Plus, the more salary the Jays are willing to take, the less the Mariners are willing to ask for.

The Mariners are in the early stages of a rebuild, having just let go of players like Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, and others. Their main prospects are still minor leaguers, and they are years away from becoming significant big leaguers, leaving no need for Gordon to stick around, and no need to be picky with prospects. The Mariners likely just want to get Gordon off the books, and bring in as much as possible for him. Being the Jays low payroll and huge budget room, they will take on the whole remaining salary on Gordon's contract in order to give up as little as possible. When Gordon was traded to the Mariners, they gave up a few moderately ranked pitching prospects. However, Gordon was coming off a great rebound season following his PED suspension, and has since declined.

The Mariners generally need help everywhere except for their talented young outfield (Haniger, Lewis, Smith, and uprising prospect, Kelenic), making for many trade possibilities. In this trade, the M's are likely just looking for some younger, and cheaper options. A one for one trade isn't an impossibility here. A couple candidates to consider for this trade could include INF Brandon Drury, INF Santiago Espinal, or INF Samad Taylor (#26 ranked organizational prospect). All of these players would likely work in a one for one trade. A great example of a similar trade is the Steve Pearce trade to the Red Sox. Peace was also an aging utility player on a fairly sizable contract with a rebuilding team. In return, Toronto actually received infielder Santiago Espinal, who has maintained his stats and future projections, making him an ideal player to consider in this trade. Considering the similarities in the deal from team to team, and player to player, Espinal seems like a good fit to be moved again.

In these deals, the Blue Jays would most likely be giving up prospects Santiago Espinal, Riley Adams, Kevin Smith, and Jordan Romano for outfielder Ender Inciarte, and utility man Dee Gordon. The Jays fill an outfield need long term with Inciarte, and Gordon could be a big contributor to the club while playing wherever they might need him. Seeing a Grichuk move could really set the team up well in a year or two time to make a run at a big name free agent upon the expiration of Gordon's contract. Overall, this makes them ideal fits for the team to help push them to the point they are aiming to reach, and become a winning team once again.