Blue Jays Run Down: What To Expect Over The Next Year

The Blue Jays are currently in the middle of a strong rebuild. This isn't really a stage that Blue Jays fans are that familiar with, as for years, we never truly underwent a full fledged rebuild, the only memorable somewhat rebuild being around the Roy Halladay trade. Although for years we didn't have playoff baseball, we were never in that rebuild stage. Now however, we are. So, what can we expect to see?

As many people know already, the Blue Jays are in the midst of a great rebuild. They are absolutely on the right track, and making many smart moves. They've been unloading players for over a year now, looking to be a contender in the future for years to come. I can't say how many times I've said this before, but I'll add to it: it is easy to build a playoff team for a season or two like Anthopoulos did. However, it is incredibly difficult to build a playoff team for a longer stretch, like the Yankees during the Jeter era, or the Dodgers with Kershaw, etc. This is what the Jays have going right now. Despite how painful it is to watch the team right now, they are going to be a huge threat for years to come, and fairly soon too.

Now we are all up to date on the rebuild status, so I'll jump to what we can expect. First, I'll discuss this years trade deadline acquisitions, then potential changes from the present, to the end of the season, followed by off-season moves, and the 2020 season.

The 2019 trade deadline was a big one. It was the confirmation that the Blue Jays are going full throttle with the rebuild. Many people worried that the Jays would only do a partial rebuild, meaning they trade older players, like Smoak and Sogard, and Galvis, but hang on to some youngish assets, like Stroman, Sanchez, Giles, etc. That was not the case however, as players such as Stroman, Sanchez, and Biagini were shipped out. Pillar was another one of these players who wasn't expected to be moved. A big chunk of the team was shipped out, so let's see how we did.

The biggest trade we made was the Stroman trade. He was potentially the best pitcher available on the market. He got moved to the Mets for two pitching prospects, Anthony Kay (24), and Simeon Woods-Richardson (18). Both players are solid prospects, and are at a position of need (pitching). Kay has also been good since joining AAA Buffalo. However, I don't think too highly of this trade. Sure, the Jays got some good prospects, but it severely worries me that they Jays couldn't get a top 100 prospect in return for him. Plus, the overall load is light. If they could have gotten another prospect or two, many people would think much better of this trade. It is especially worrying because the Mets put Stroman back on the market as soon as the trade was announced. This means the Mets know they got a steal for him, and tried moving him right away for a better load. Unbelievable.

It is well known that the Blue Jays think extremely highly of these two prospects, but you can't be paying the price you value them at. You need to pay the price the Mets value them at (especially if it's lower), and I truly believe they could've gotten more. All in all, good prospects, but the total return value was light.

Now the Sanchez/Biagini trade. For those of you who don't know, they were sent to Houston, along with a single A prospect who has been on a tear. Jays fans were excited to find out what we had gotten in return, as it was a huge load going out to a team with lots of young talent, and strong prospects. The sole player we got in return was Derek Fisher. Fisher is a former top prospect who has failed time and time again at the big league level. His career MLB batting average is below .200, and since joining Toronto, his average has been below .170. Plus, he is already 26, putting him about 3-4 years ahead of most Blue Jays prospects, and right about now should be entering his prime. Another trade where the Jays overpaid because they thought so highly of a prospect. The front office seriously needs to stop doing this. I just don't understand the logic here. To say the least, this was a VERY disappointing trade.

Some other players the Jays shipped out were Eric Sogard, David Phelps, and Daniel Hudson, yielding relatively strong returns, but they weren't high value trades. Basically, we got bench players instead of career minor league players. So, despite the front office getting more value than most teams would, it's not that significant.

Since the deadline, the Blue Jays have made some head scratching moves. They released shortstop Freddy Galvis, who was picked up by the Reds, absolutely free. I sort of see the logic, as he wasn't in the Jays long term plans, and they needed him out to make room for younger players. However, Galvis was on a 1 + 1 contract, meaning one year guaranteed, and one year as an option, which was a team option. Galvis is having career highs in many departments, and held legitimate trade value. Toronto could have simply held on to him for the rest of the year and traded him in the offseason.

Another strange release would be reliever/starter Nick Kingham. Kingham was picked up by Toronto earlier this season via waivers. He was having a terrible year with the Pirates, before turning it right around with Toronto. Through 21.0 innings with the Jays, he had an ERA of exactly 3.00, which is among the strongest by starters, and relievers. Plus, he is only 27, and won't be free agent eligible until 2025. He seemed like a perfect pitcher for the new opener role. He has above average stamina for a reliever, and is below average for a starter. Between he and Wilmer Font, the Jays could have been doing very well with this new opener strategy. Overall, a very puzzling move to just let him go.

Some other transactions, the Blue Jays made some waiver pickups, adding Beau Taylor (29 year old catcher), Zack Godley (29 year old reliever/starter), and Brock Stewart (27 year old reliever). These moves worry me a little bit. They might be good pickups, but it meant releasing players like Kingham (27), and Paulino (25), and DFAing Dalton Pompey, which are young players with high potential. The worst part, like I said earlier, Kingham is having a good year. Why would you release a 27 year old having a strong year to make room for someone like 29 year old Godley, having a terrible year?

Perhaps the best part of the deadline, the promotions! Bo Bichette has finally been reunited with Guerrero and Biggio. Reese McGuire is finally getting solid major league time. Homegrown Jordan Romano is finally getting a chance. The list goes on. As you likely know, Bichette has been tearing it up, breaking all sorts of rookie records. He has seriously impressed fans, and has become an attraction on his own. McGuire was another key call up, as we all know the struggles Jansen and Maile have had offensively. Despite not being known for offence, McGuire has been a stable option that doesn't have fans groaning every time he steps up to the plate, like Jansen and Maile so far. He has been a pleasant surprise offensively since getting the call, and is showing that his 2018 September offensive surge could be a normality in his play style.

On to September we go. This is an important time for the Blue Jays, as many young players will make their debuts after a strong season in Buffalo. Keep your eyes on Anthony Alford, and Julian Merryweather. Alford is a commonly heard name for Jays fans, but this year could be different than the rest. He has been having a bounce back year in AAA, and it has been a surprise he isn't already up. With weak offence from the outfield already, Alford could see a lot of time in September. Merryweather is a pitching prospect who has yet to make his debut. He was our sole return for Donaldson last season. He is a hard throwing reliever who has been a bit of an eye opener in Buffalo. Could be a strong bullpen candidate for next season.

Now the off-season. Being that it's a rebuild, expect no big additions. The likely addition will be guys coming off bad years, or injuries, signing one year deals to prove themselves. Basically, guys to trade at the deadline. Examples of this over the past year would be Daniel Hudson (bad 2018), Eric Sogard (bad 2018), David Phelps (injury), Matt Shoemaker (injury), and more. Lots of players you probably won't know. No infielders will be brought in due to the extreme potential and depth at those positions. Possibly one outfielder if McKinney and/or Hernandez struggle to get a grip over the rest of the season. Lots of pitching however, which is generally the most common.

So, that's the kind of acquisitions we can expect, but what guys are going to leave? Well, most of the team is young, and under team control. However, we do have some free agents in Justin Smoak, Clayton Richard, Clay Buchholz, and John Axford (who has yet to play in the majors this season). Presumably, we will let all of them go. There is a chance we hold on to Richard (team relationships and veteran presence), and Smoak (fan favourite), but I wouldn't call either likely, especially Smoak. I would call him as good as gone to be honest. The Jays want Tellez starting, and frankly, based on their history, they really don't care about if the fans like a player. On top of that, he really hasn't earned himself another contract, hitting below .220 on the year thus far.

The Jays still have a fair amount of pieces to trade away. One of the biggest surprises of the deadline was that the Jays held on to Giles, although that was likely due to the general lack of assurance surrounding his injury, especially being that the Jays have a history of prolonging and aggravating injuries. However, by time the off-season rolls around, Giles should be fine, and is coming off a very strong year, making him very valuable. He potentially has the value to yield a top 100 prospect in return if the Jays can work some magic, although with the trade deadline deals, I really can't feel too confident in that statement.

Another player we might see moved is Grichuk. Much less likely to be moved than Giles however, being that the front office takes so much pride in the extension they gave him, despite the rest of baseball thinking quite differently about it. He holds fair value, and it would make sense for Toronto to move him. He really doesn't fit the rebuild blueprint, and moving him would open up room for a really crowded outfield, featuring Hernandez, Gurriel Jr., McKinney, Pompey, Alford, Fisher, Davis, and potentially others. Although it doesn't seem to be a likely move, it would be a smart one, especially if we could get a prospect or two that could fit in our top 30.

Lastly for the off-season, coaching staff. There really haven't been rumors here, but I'm ready to start them. I believe in Montoyo, and think he has done a good job with the team, so he is safe. Pitching has been OK, especially with the comeback seasons from so many guys, like Shoemaker, Phelps, Font, Stroman, Giles, etc. Pitching coach Pete Walker and his staff have proven to be difference making. The base coaches have done wonders in terms of fielding, as shown with Gurriel, and his smooth adjustment to the outfield, as well as Hernandez making big strides. Base running is a little worry some, but that comes more with player experience. The only area I'm truly worried about is our hitting coach.

Guillermo Martinez is the hitting coach for the Blue Jays. He was brought along as one of the new guys on Montoyo's staff in 2018. He is the youngest hitting coach in all of baseball, which is interesting, but indicates lack of experience. I have been really worried about him, and what he is doing to the team, and I am really hoping for a change this off-season. Think about some of these young guys in 2018. Jansen, breakout. Tellez, breakout. Hernandez, breakout. Now in 2018, all of these guys who looked like the future of the Jays, are suddenly being bounced around between triple A and the MLB due to extreme recessions in their offensive numbers. Not just slight recessions. Extreme recessions. What must Martinez be doing to mess up these players so badly. Plus, guys like Drury, and Biggio, who were known as offensive players, can't hit the ball anymore, with Drury hitting just over .220, and Biggio hitting below .210. If this doesn't raise red flags, I don't know what does. The whole team shouldn't be getting worse. The one that scares me the most is Rowdy Tellez. After an extraordinary 2018, he started 2019 hot. Then, after more and more time with Martinez, he began getting worse and worse. Less contact, less power, etc. They send him down to the minors. They (the AAA team) claim to have changed his swing. He comes back swinging a hot bat. A couple weeks later, he can't do anything again. Why can the AAA hitting coach put Tellez on nthe right track, and then Martinez brings him back down?

Now for next season. Expect a better season than this, but not by too much. It is common to see second year slumps, so don't be too concerned if Bichette and Guerrero regress a little bit. Things to look forward to include a healthy Borucki (could be the highlight of the season), Reese McGuire taking over as the starting catcher (and showing some promising offence in the meantime), and improvement from Jansen (thanks to experience from 2019). Lastly, be sure to watch Bichette, Gurriel, and Guerrero. These guys are the keys to our future. They could lead to lots of excitement, and despite how common second year slumps are, I think that they have a good chance to keep improving, and help the team. I'm hoping to see Bichette maintain a .300 average, Guerrero hit over .280 with 20 home runs, and Biggio hit for 25+ homers. Next year will be a much better year. It will be the uprising of the core. 2019 is the most painful year of the rebuild. Just get through it, and you will see it was worth it. After all, the Toronto Blue Jays are the team of the future.