Blue Jays Prospects Evaluation

With the Blue Jays starting their rebuild, many new young faces will be up and down throughout the year. Here, I will be taking a handful of their prospects, and writing a rundown on each of them. Find out who might be the next big name, or the next big bust.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - If you haven't heard this name, you must have been in a coma the last few months. Guerrero is currently the # 1 rated prospect in all of baseball. Guerrero; son of hall of famer Vladimir Guerrero Sr., is one of the greatest hitters the minor leagues has ever seen. Last year, in his age 19 season, he split time between AA and AAA Buffalo. For Buffalo, he hit for a .336 batting average with 6 home runs in 110 at bats. For AA New Hampshire, he managed to hit for a batting average over .400 in more than 230 at bats! Amazing numbers! Good enough to win minor league player of the year. On MLB.com he became the first player to ever receive the maximum rating for contact. Vladdy Jr. is one of the most highly anticipated prospects the league has seen in years. He is expected to make his debut this season, and become a big difference maker. He is the centrepiece to the rebuild.

Bo Bichette - Bichette; son of 4 time all-star Dante Bichette, is another highly anticipated prospect. He, along with Guerrero, are the core of the rebuild, and are expected to be the main players going forward. Bichette is a 20 year old shortstop who can handle the bad very well. He is known for his incredible contact hitting ability. He is an average to above average fielder, and has moderate pop to his bat. He looks to potentially be a fantastic 2 hitter in the lineup in the future. He is currently the rated the 2nd best prospect in the organization, and number 11 in all of baseball. This spring he has really impressed me. I think he will turn out to be an excellent offensive force in the future, and maybe even one of the best players in the league. He had a little bit of a down season last year, but don't let that fool you. He is a phenomenal talent who I can't wait to see on the team. He has more power then most expect, and a high understanding of the game. He is a player that could be a game changer for the Jays. I highly recommend watching out for him. He will be a force on the team. I hope he will force the hands of the front office to call him up this season. He is ready, but will probably last another season in the minors.

Danny Jansen - You likely recognize Jansen from the tail end of last season. Martin really started going down hill, and the rebuild came into effect, and Jansen was one of the players who got the most time on the field, becoming our starting catcher. He quickly became a favourite on the team after a pretty good offensive month (especially for a catcher these days). Currently he is 23 years old. He is a former 16th round draft pick who was never a very highly rated prospect in the minors, until just recently. He was generally unrated in the Jays system, and for the most part once he was, he sat around the 20-30 rated spots. After a strong season last year, and his impressive time in the MLB, he has quickly shot up to be one of the top prospects in the organization (3rd, behind Vlad and Bichette). He will be the starting catcher in 2019 after the Martin trade.

Ryan Borucki - You probably know about Borucki, as he spent most of 2018 up with the Blue Jays. He is a 24 year old left handed starter who was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 15th round of the 2012 draft. Borucki is an effective pitcher who has an above average change up. He had moderate control, and good break, but is nothing special with velocity. He reminds me a bit of a left handed Marco Estrada. In 2018, Borucki had lots of success at the major league level, pitching for a 3.87 ERA over 97.2 innings. Currently in spring training, he has been fairly good, but inconsistent, with an ERA of 3.24. Borucki is fighting for the last rotation spot at this point, although I am not sure why it isn't just handed to him. Last year he was our best starter, clearly beating out guys like Stroman, Estrada, and Gaviglio. Plus, he is better than most of the Jays current options in Shoemaker (just coming back from injury), Richard (5.33 ERA last year), and possibly even the big guys, like Stroman and Sanchez. I especially think that giving him a rotation spot out of the gate would be good for his development. I truly believe that he will become a left handed Estrada, or maybe a Happ. I was upset to see Estrada go because he could have been a key mentor. Either way, I would expect a couple all-star appearances in the future for Borucki. I see him as a number 2 or 3 guy in the rotation for us going forward.

Nate Pearson - Pearson is a 22 year old right handed starter who is rated the 4th overall prospect in the organization. He is a former first round draft pick of the Jays too. He is probably one of the more intriguing prospects in the organization. He is known for his incredible velocity on his fastball, but doesn't have too much else other than an average slider. He is most well known for his time last year in the fall league when he threw a fastball at 104 mph. However, that pitch was surprisingly turned around for a home run, which is what concerns me. I think he can easily be one of the better pitchers in the league one day, but his control is seriously concerning. He has little control of the ball, and it sometimes seems like he doesn't even know where its going. Sure, he can throw hard, but does it ultimately matter if he can't put it in good spots? He is someone I am frequently worried about for the Jays because there is so much potential there, but I am really starting to get afraid that he won't reach it. He isn't expected to reach the MLB until next year, and he is already 22. If he can't improve on his control, I wouldn't expect him to ever really become anything in the league. If he can however get a grasp on it, watch out. He might become the next Luis Severino.

Anthony Alford - Alford is a 24 year old outfielder known for his incredible athleticism. The former highly regarded football star is currently the 5th rated prospect in the organization. He has been a highly rated prospect for the Jays for years already, and has been bouncing around from the minors to the majors. He made his debut in 2017, and owns a career batting average of .111. Throughout his years in the minors, he has easily been one of the most inconsistent players I've ever seen. His average jumps all over the place, from hitting around .350 to almost .200. From what I have seen, the potential is there, but I'm terribly afraid he won't live up to expectations. I feel like he is supposed to be like a more athletic prime Brett Gardner, but will only live to be like Dalton Pompey. He will likely spend a lot of time in the majors the next 2 years, as the rebuild is in full force. He will be an interesting player to watch. I'm not too sure what to expect.

Reese McGuire - McGuire, a former 1st round draft selection, is a 23 year old catching prospect for the Jays. We originally acquired him from the Pirates in the Hutchison trade. He is known for his elite defensive skills, which are frequently considered much above the MLB average for the position. However, it took this long to get to the MLB because he struggles significantly on offence. Last season in AAA McGuire hit for a low .233 average, however he showed significant potential once being called up in September, hitting .290 with 2 home runs in 31 at bats. For years McGuire has been a prospect that I have kept a close eye on. I personally believe that he will become one of the best catchers in the league. He is a frequent on and off prospect on the organizations top 30 list, so I find he is extremely underrated, potentially the most underrated prospect in the game. I highly recommend watching him play. He will be a very good player, and I expect him to potentially be an all-star by the end of his career.

Cavan Biggio - Biggio; son of hall of famer Craig Biggio, is a 23 year old infielder, who is rated as the 9th overall prospect in the Jays organization. Biggio made a name for himself fairly quickly within the organization after putting up some impressive numbers on offence. Last season at AA New Hampshire, Biggio hit 26 home runs with 99 RBI in 449 at bats (while maintaining a .252 average). He is a big power threat, but at the same time has good plate discipline, as he walked 100 times, compared to his 148 strike outs. Compare this to other power bats, such as Joey Gallo, who drew 74 walks, and 204 strikeouts last season for the Texas Rangers. Biggio is a very polished player, and is expected to make his debut this season. The problem standing in the way however, is the crowded infield, which includes Bichette, Guerrero, Travis, Gurriel, Galvis, and others. The Blue Jays have considered a move to the outfield.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - Chances are you know Gurriel already, as he was a starter for most of the year. He had a fairly impressive year. After hitting .301 with 7 home runs in just over 200 at bats in AAA, the Jays made the call. In the majors, Gurriel hit .281 with 11 home runs in almost 250 at bats, which is a very solid stat line. With some small changes, I believe he can easily become an all-star, and one of the key pieces to this rebuild. The Jays still have him under team control for 5 more years. He is still only 24, so there is plenty of time for improvement. I expect him to be a huge part of this team going forward. He is an exciting player to watch, and I look forward to watching him become one of the faces of the team. I am extremely confident that he will be a future star. Once Bichette comes up, most expect Gurriel to shift to second base, as his fielding isn't exactly shortstop worthy. Overall, I believe that his bat will make up for it. In the future, I expect him to pan out like Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox.

Sean Reid-Foley - Reid-Foley is an interesting prospect who I've found to be quite a mystery for a long time. He is a 23 year old right handed starting pitcher. He has always been one of the higher rated prospects in the organization, but I never really saw anything special in him like most scouts did. In his minor league career he holds a 3.90 ERA. Last year he showed significant success in AA with a 2.03 ERA, going 5-0 during that span. His time in AAA didn't nearly measure up to the same kind of success. Reid-Foley made his debut last year, and remained with the Blue Jays for most of the season. He ended the year with a rather poor 5.13 era, and averaged less than 5 innings a start. Many see lots of potential in him to become a 2 or 3 starter in the rotation one day. I however would guess he pans out to be a 5 guy, or maybe 4 guy at best. He completely lacked control in his MLB time, averaging well over 5 walks per 9 innings. Anyways, going forward he is widely expected to lead the pitching prospects for the Jays. Only time will tell if he can live up to those expectations.

Rowdy Tellez - Tellez is a 23 year old first baseman who is rated the 29th overall prospect in the organization. Tellez quickly became a fan favourite last season during his September call up. In his short time, he hit for a .314 batting average with 4 home runs and 14 RBI in 70 at bats, which are very good numbers. He also managed to hit 9 doubles, which is incredible with that few at bats, and would be on pace to lead the league with more at bats. He is also having a good spring, hitting around the .300 mark with many flashes of power thus far. I personally never thought very highly of him, but he has really impressed me. His ability to his against right handed pitching is incredible, but he is weak against left. I think he has a chance to be a good player, but he cannot keep up the same pace he had in September. I think he can turn out similar to prime Kendrys Morales, which is pretty good. We will see what the future holds, as he will likely get a fair share of playing time this season, especially if Smoak or Morales are traded at some point. Both have expiring contracts, so expect Tellez to be our full time first baseman as of next season.

TJ Zeuch - Zeuch; a former first round draft pick, is a 23 year old right handed pitcher. Last year he was rated the 15th best prospect in the Blue Jays organization. Zeuch was expected to be a low risk pick, which seems to generally be working out. He looks to have moderate potential, but is nothing special. I would expect him to be a number 4 starter throughout his career. Last year he pitched between high A and AA. In AA he threw 120 innings, and ended with a 3.08 ERA, which is pretty good. However, that doesn't convince me that he will be a good pitcher. I worry about his batting average against. Despite the good ERA, his BAA is .258, which is fairly high. For the most part, his numbers are pretty good, but that stat really concerns me. Anyways, he is most well known for his fastball, and his slider, which is a good combination. He also has a curveball, and a change up in his arsenal. MLB.com lists his MLB ready date as 2019, but I would push it back a year. He isn't ready yet.

Hector Perez - Perez was one of the prospects we acquired in the Osuna trade. He is a flame throwing right hander who is the 11th rated prospect in the organization. He is only 22 years old, and was added to the 40 man last year. Expect him to start the year in the minors, as he is still not fully ready for the MLB, and has many other players ahead of him. He was added to the 40 man to protect him from the rule 5 draft, where he was likely to have been drafted. In 2018 he pitched across 3 levels in the minors, in high A, AA, and AAA, with consistency across the board. He arguably pitched the best at AA with a 3.24 ERA. In AAA Perez pitched for a 3.86 ERA. Across all 3 levels, his batting average against maintained under .200, which is very good. His best coming in AAA, which again is very impressive. According to MLB.com, he should be MLB ready in 2020. He seems like a very solid prospect to me, and I think he will turn out to be a great player. I will be looking forward to his call up.

David Paulino - Paulino was one of the players we acquired in the Roberto Osuna trade. Paulino is a 25 year old right handed starting pitcher. He is a former top prospect, but on his journey through the minors, he was suspended for PED use, and has struggled to regain his progress since. He made his debut in 2016 with the Astros, and pitched his career high 29 innings a year later in 2017. In his time with the Astros, he had a 6.25 era. last season he only pitched 6.2 innings, all of which with Toronto. He had 6 punch outs with a 1.35 era. All of his 2018 appearances came in relief. I personally believe that he will turn out to be a pretty good player. I think he will become either a very good long reliever (at worst), or a number 3 or 4 starter in the rotation (I would guess 4 starter).

Eric Pardinho - Pardinho is a Brazilian born 18 year old starting pitcher. He is a highly rated prospect, number 7 in the organization. You might remember the name Yan Gomes. Gomes made his debut with the Blue Jays a few years back. He was the first Brazilian born MLB player. Since then, Royals Paulo Orlando has become the second, and Pardinho has a chance to be the third (to my knowledge). Anyways, Pardinho is a highly regarded prospect known for his velocity, and his above average curveball. He is very good for his age, and has quickly become a very highly anticipated prospect. He has very high potential, and is believed to possibly become a number 2 starter. From what I have heard and seen, he has impressed me. According to MLB.com, Pardinho is expected to make his MLB debut in 2021, or his age 20 season, which is quite impressive. He is someone would I will be excited to watch. You might not hear his name too much currently, but trust me, you will.

Elvis Luciano - Elvis Luciano is a 19 year old pitcher who the Blue Jays acquired in the rule 5 draft from the Royals this past season. According to many, Luciano is not near MLB ready, as you would expect with a 19 year old (just turned 19). The Blue Jays simply drafted him because of the opportunity to acquired an 18 year old. Many writers are wondering is they will be able to keep him on the roster the whole season, as he really won't be playing, they will just be keeping him on the 25 because of the rules from the rule 5 draft. As soon as he would be eligible to be sent down next year, he would be to continue development. According to MLB.com, their projections show him to become a slightly above average pitcher, around a 4-5 started. Either way, it will be quite a while before he becomes MLB ready. It will be a struggle to keep him on the active roster this season. It will be a challenge. Lastly, you might be wondering why an 18 year old was eligible for the rule 5 draft. Basically, there is a rule that if a minor leaguers contract was renegotiated, then they can be eligible. This happening with an 18 year old is hardly the case, so this really is a rarity. There is more on that rule, but I haven't looked into it too much yet.

Trent Thornton - Thornton, acquired from the Astros this offseason in the Aledmys Diaz trade, is a 25 year old right handed pitcher. He was the Astros 5th round pick in the 2015 draft. Thornton is most well known for his fastball, as it is his best pitch, topping out at 97 mph. He had a good amount of success in the low levels in the minor leagues, but since coming into the upper levels the last couple years, he has struggled. In 2018, Thornton carried a 4.42 era over 124.4 innings in AAA. Not very strong numbers. Thornton is expected to make his MLB debut this season with the Blue Jays, as he has been added to the 40 man roster.

Jordan Groshans - Groshans was the 1st round pick of the Blue Jays in the 2018 draft. He still has plenty of time before he comes up, being that he is only 19. He is the 8th overall prospect in the Jays system, and is projected to make his debut in the 2022 season. He is currently a shortstop, but is expected to shift to either third or second at a later point in his career. He is projected to be slightly above average across the board, as he is generally a very well rounded player. His power with the bat is likely his biggest strength, but he really managed to impress with his contact, hitting .331 over 142 at bats in rookie league (Blue field - Gulf Coast League).