It's Now or Never. Time to Sign Bryce Harper.

Spring training has finally started, yet some of the biggest names on the free agent market have yet to find themselves on a team. Players such as Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and Bryce Harper have yet to sign anywhere (and Machado has just recently signed), as teams are unwilling to offer the mega deals that these players are looking for. It was rumoured from early on in the offseason that Machado and Harper were looking for 10 year, $300 million deals. However, the largest offer known to to either of them (before Machado's deal) was only around $250 million over 10 years. The Yankees were expected to be huge players this offseason, but are now rumoured to be out on all major free agents, as they are simply unwilling to offer such a large contract. Their market is cooling off, and the interest in these star players is quickly being lost.

The Blue Jays came into 2018 looking to retool, but remain competitive. However, it wasn't long until they decided to fully invest into a rebuild. They Blue Jays now look like one of the biggest threats going into the future, with young studs like Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Jansen, Pearson, and others. Clearly, the future looks very bright. Now, in the 2019 offseason, the Blue Jays looked to further their rebuild, trading for more young players (think Martin and Diaz trades). They are in full rebuild mode, and once the contracts of Tulowitzki and Martin are paid off, the Blue Jays will be in the perfect position to contend. Many believe the Blue Jays will be a big threat as soon as the 2022 season! However, I am thinking otherwise. What if we sped that process up a bit?

The Jays are a team that I can easily say has one of the brightest futures in baseball. They've got some of the best prospects in the league and most of them are about to make the jump into the majors. That last sentence is key, the fact that they are MLB ready. These prospects are guys that are expected to be huge difference makers as soon as in 2 years. The Jays could have a playoff team again very soon. They are deep with catching prospects (Jansen, McGuire, Riley, Danner, Pentecost), they are loaded with infield prospects (Gurriel, Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Tellez, Biggio, Smith), strong with young outfielders (Smith Jr., Alford, McKinney, Hernandez, Davis), and they are decent with pitching too (Reid-Foley, Pearson, Borucki, Paulino). They are set for the future, the near future. Overall, my point is that in 2 or 3 years, the Jays are going to have a really, really good team.

This offseason, there were several big name free agents, who still remain unsigned, and whose market is cooling down. This is where the Jays step in. The Blue Jays need to pursue the 2015 NL MVP Bryce Harper. The Blue Jays might be able to step in right now, and offer Harper a reasonable contract. Something like 9 years, $250 million, or 10 years $280 million, which is the best offer since the 10 year $310+ million offer Harper turned down from the Nationals earlier this offseason (no longer on the table). If the Blue Jays sign him to a contract like this, they can create one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball in just a couple short years.

This past year was a disappointing one for the 2015 MVP. He hit for a .249 average on the year, and that's after a strong finish. Along with that, he hit an impressive 34 home runs with a career high 100 RBI. However, most people expect Harper to return to his MVP self, which is what they are paying for. During his MVP season, he had a .330 average with a league leading 42 home runs. He also led the league in on base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs scored. He many times has been called a once in a generation player. His potential seems unlimited, and that is what puts fear in his opponents eyes. He is a game changing player no matter what uniform he has on.

Imagine this lineup 2 or 3 years down the line: Gurriel, Bichette, Guerrero, Harper, Jansen, Tellez, Biggio, Grichuk, then either McKinney, Pillar, Hernandez, or a new outfielder. Amazing lineup. Maybe even a "death lineup." That is an incredibly good team. A contending team. Harper is an amazing fit in the lineup too. He adds amazing pop to the lineup, and fits amazing with Guerrero. This might be a championship team one day. There is great reason for Harper to join the Jays. Some of the other teams pursuing him include the Phillies, White Sox, and the Padres. The Padres and White Sox have very bright futures, but aren't particularly close to contention, which is why the Blue Jays beat them out. The Phillies are really the only competition, and I still think Harper would be a better fit with the Jays, where he wouldn't have to do all the work on offence.

Now, what really separates the Jays and the Phillies? I've got two things. First, the Jays have a chance to be good for a really, really long time. The Phillies, I can't say the same about. Sure, they've got young studs like Nola and Hoskins, but the rest of the team isn't the same story. Think about some of their key players, like Arrieta, McCutchen, David Robertson, and others. The Phillies have a great team, but they also have many aging players, which will become bad contracts. Once the Jays finish paying out Tulowitzki and Martin, the Jays will be sliding into contention. Then, we will have no large contracts. It is incredibly ideal. Even better is that the 2020-2021 offseason (the year the Jays will shed Tulo and Martin's contracts, AND become contenders) guys like Mike Trout, Jacob DeGrom, Mookie Betts, and others are free agents. The Jays will have cap space to sign some of these guys. It is all part of a master plan.

The second important part of the Jays over the Phillies is player service time. Many guys Harper will be playing with on the Jays are still minor leaguers today. That means they will be getting paid peanuts for years to come. The Phillies however have many guys with 2-3+ years of service time. They are going to either get paid, or leave in a couple short years. Harper can either contend for a couple years, or come to the Jays and potentially be part of a dynasty, because the team will be great for years to come.

The final factor as to why Harper should sign with Toronto would be because of the contract I would offer. Harper coming to Toronto isn't because they have a good team, but because they will have a good team. However, that isn't a sure thing. They are just betting on the future. So, I would give Harper an opt out clause after 5 years. This is perfect for Harper because if the team doesn't work out, he opts out in his age 31 season, where he is still a star player, and can still get a huge contract with another team. It is a low risk contract for him that other teams simply wouldn't be willing to offer. Plus, in the chance the Jays aren't very good in the future, they might actually want him to opt out so that they don't have to pay for his age 31-36 seasons. It might be a win-win. It is a very appealing option for both sides.

Finally, I'll get to the contract I would offer. I think it is worth paying Harper what he wants. A discount is a bonus. However, I would structure the contract in a very interesting way. Basically, I would be willing to give him the 10 year $300 million if it comes to that. However, I would load the cash on each year differently. This might get a bit confusing, so bear with me while I try to explain all of this. I spent lots of time thinking this out.

The key years for the Jays contention would be through contract years 3-8. The first two years, and the last two years aren't gonna be too pretty. So, I'm going to take advantage of that. I am also keeping in mind the 2021 free agency class, and the 5th year opt out. The 5th year opt out is important because that means I need to be careful when front loading his contract (and I do want to front load the contract), because I don't want to pay him most of the contract, then watch him opt out. So, I will pay $160 million over the first 5 years, and $140 over the last 5 years. Then, I structure the contract so that we pay him $50 million in year 1, and $45 million in year 2. This is because we don't expect to use much money during these recent years, as we don't have a contending team yet. That means that over the next 3 years, we only have to pay an annual average of $21.7 million, which is obviously below the contract average. This is to give the team leverage when signing free agents from the 2020-2021 class. For the second 5 year term (if he opts in), I would attempt to backload the payments. I would pay out $45 million in year 10. This leaves an average around $26 million a year for the other years. I would set up a standard backloading system for the remainder of these years (years 6 through 9).

As I said before, it would be a very unique contract structure. However, I would be very beneficial to both parties. Bryce would love to be paid so much in year one, never mind the fact of how helpful it would be to the Jays. There is such good reason for Harper to join Toronto, and this contract might just make the final push. GM Ross Atkins in the past said that the front office has inquired about Harper. However, no significant information has come up since then. I do believe that the Blue Jays would have an excellent shot at him. Philly is the only real competition, and recent reports have said that Harper is not yet sold on signing with Philadelphia, and that he is still unsure about them. There is a window of opportunity here. Now we just have to hope that the Jays take then chance. It is a win-win for both sides, and this could be a massive move, with affects for years to come.

Ultimately, the Phillies are currently front runners for Harper. The White Sox, Padres, and Giants have been common names in the discussion as well. After the new deal was released about Machado to the Padres, it looks like an interesting contract like mine would be important to help stand above. Machado managed to fetch $300 million over 10 years from the Padres. This could force teams to jump into that range for Harper as well. The Blue Jays would have to pull out their wallets, but I can ensure that it would be well worth it. This is an important move for the Jays to make to set out for a very successful future. It's Now or Never. Time to Sign Bryce Harper.