Should The Jays Become Sellers, Marco Estrada Could Be First To Go

After starting the season with high expectations, and hopes to reach the playoffs again, the Blue Jays have performed very far below expectations. At this point in the season, the Blue Jays are sitting 10 wins away from .500, at a 44-54 win-loss record. Now, for the first time in around 6 years, it is time to consider undergoing a rebuild.

When the time comes that a contending team has to rebuild, it is important to think about some key pieces that could get you some value. Right now, some of the main players that are frequently written about are are Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, Francisco Liriano, and Marco Estrada. However, I am not like other writers.

When I think about a rebuild, I think of the key pieces that could get the most value for the Jays. When I look at who can get the most in return for the Blue Jays, there are always three names that come up. Francisco Liriano is the first. Josh Donaldson is the second. Lastly, and possibly the most valuable, Marco Estrada. For me, Bautista and Morales don't bring much to the table. These days, the power hitting market is down. Look at Encarnacion's surprisingly low deal in free agency (42 hrs). Look at Chris Carter, who is now an everyday minor leaguer (41 hrs, led the NL). Power guys just aren't the hot topic on the market anymore. Justin Smoak somewhat fits here (in the power hitter conversations). This year, he has also hit for contact, but I just don't think that he has made enough of a name for himself to bring much value. A one time all-star who is having the first good year of his career at age 30, with no proven consistency doesn't exactly have people lining up throwing top prospects at you. Despite having a better season than former MVP teammate Josh Donaldson, he just isn't someone who pops into your mind when someone says "superstar" like Donaldson does.

You may have noticed when I listed my three valuable players, that I called Estrada, "possibly the most valuable" of the three. This is very true. When looking at a possible Donaldson trade, you have to think about the very recent J.D Martinez trade, where the Tigers end of the deal just didn't quite bring in the same value as the Diamondbacks got. Like I said earlier, power guys just don't bring much value to the table anymore, and although Donaldson used to be a contact guy too, this years .238 doesn't cut it... Obviously! Now we move on to why Liriano just isn't as valuable as Estrada. When you think of Liriano, you think of his large salary, his old age, and the fact that his ERA is OVER 6.00! However, Liriano brings value here because of his playoff performances, which are drawing lots of teams to him. His career 3.79 ERA, and perfect winning percentage in the postseason are really drawing attention to him.

Now, why is Estrada the best? Well, let's start out with some stats and accomplishments to refresh your memories. 2.64 career playoff ERA. 2016 AL all-star. 2015, and 2016 regular season AL leader in H/9. 2015/2016 ERA are both under 3.50. Remember why he is so valuable? Plus, despite his struggles this year, he is still better then Liriano in all of the following stats: ERA, WHIP, H9, BB9, SO9 and more. Not only is Estrada a good trade chip right now, but it is currently a huge market for pitching, and someone with a proven track record like him could get a lot of attention.

Time to think about Estrada's true value. This isn't actually that easy, as there aren't many trades that are similar to this situation. Estrada is an older player, who starting to move out of his prime. He is going to be a rental. He isn't an ace. What big deals can the Jays really attract? Firstly, we have to think about the Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs trade. Chapman was a rental. Despite being a superstar, he was a reliever, rather then a starter, which lowers his value. This also brings us to think about the Andrew Miller trade. Miller, like Estrada, is a bit older then Chapman, however, Miller is significantly better, and still a bit younger (then Estrada). Plus, Miller isn't a rental like Estrada would be. But Miller, like Chapman, is a reliever, and has less value then a starter. To make sure of this, I evaluate the Chris Sale deal, which proved that starters are worth more. Ok, now we have looked at all these deals, and still don't have too much to make of it. Well, let's get to the best comparison.

Quintana to the Cubs. This is probably the closest we get to a Marco Estrada type deal. Despite Quintana being younger, better, and not a rental, it is the closest we can get. In the Quintana deal, the White Sox acquired two top 100 prospects according to MLB.com. They got the 8th overall prospect in baseball (Eloy Jimenez). They also got the 62nd overall prospect in baseball (Dylan Cease). On top of this, two minor leaguers not included on the top 100 list were thrown in. So, this starts to get the general guidelines set.

With Estrada, there have already been links to other ball clubs. According to Sportsnet, Estrada has been most commonly linked with the Kansas City Royals. With this being the case, we are going to use the Royals as the Blue Jays trade partners, so that we could build a realistic deal that could actually happen. So, let's begin.

BREAKING: Blue Jays SP Marco Estrada traded to the Kansas City Royals for... How about Hunter Dozier? To start off this deal, I am not going to soften anything, and instead go right after the treasure. Hunter Dozier is a 25 year old third baseman who also plays all the outfield positions. Dozier was a first round pick in the 2013 MLB draft (drafted 8th overall), who is recognized for his ability with the bat, especially when it comes to power. Now, before I keep going, I must mention that I know people disagree with the fact that I believe the Royals will give away their number 1 prospect and then some. However, Dozier is NOT in MLB.com's top 100 prospects list, which is what makes him obtainable in this deal.

Along with the Royals top prospect (Dozier), I would also add their number 3 overall prospect (again not in the top 100), left hander, Eric Skoglund. A quote about the 6'7 lefty on MLB.com's prospect info says "he has drawn Chris Sale comparisons since high school..." The 24 year old was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2014 MLB draft, and is expected to be MLB ready this season. He is projected to become a middle of the rotation kid of guy, which would be a fair return for Estrada along with the MLB ready Dozier. Keep noting how I call them MLB ready all the time. This will fit in very soon.

Despite the fact that the Royals would be giving away their 1st and 3rd overall prospects, this is still a fair deal. Considering that the White Sox were able to acquire two top 100 prospect, plus two other young minor leaguers for Quintana shows that it should be reasonable for the Blue Jays to obtain two fairly high level prospect, neither of which are in the top 100.

Now, remember how I said to note that I kept saying "MLB ready?" Here it comes. It is key for the Blue Jays to trade for prospects that are going to start hitting the MLB soon. Assuming that they are able to do this (with trades such as this one) the Blue Jays should be back in a contending spot in 4-5 years, because right when these guys are starting to hit their primes, guys like Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, and others will be right in their primes. It will all hit at once, and coordinate perfectly. Getting the prospects I wrote about in here would make sure that they all hit their stride at the same time, and be one massive force all ready at there and then, rather then what the Jays currently have (some players in their late 30's, and some in their young 20's).

To finish this up, it is a trade that works out for both sides. The Royals get a pitcher who has proven himself many times in the past, and who can be very clutch in they playoffs. I mean, just ask the Royals themselves. Surely they remember how much trouble he gave them in the 2015 ALCS. 2.77 ERA in that series with a staggering 0.769 WHIP. I'm sure that they would have loved to be on the other side of that performance. Now, the Jays? This is definitely a step in the right direction.